Wolf 51, Corbett 31

Well, the first poll of the Pa. governor's race is out, and the news from Rasmussen is not good for incumbent Tom Corbett.

Pennsylvania always re-elects its governors <http://www.theus50.com/pennsylvania/governors.php>. However, Corbett, the incumbent Republican, trails Wolf by twenty points, 51-31, with Wolf winning every conceivable demographic group. 

Here is the PoliticsPA story about the poll: <http://www.politicspa.com/pa-gov-rasmussen-poll-wolf-51-corbett-31/58432/>.

Suffice it to say that it is Wolf's race to lose, but many things will happen between now and November. First, as much as they detest Corbett, many republicans will decide to go with him because they despise the democrats. Second, Corbett may be given a free prize if the investigation into his actions that either did or did not slow or prevent the Jerry Sandusky Penn State child-abuse investigation are released by Attorney General Kathleen Kane prior to the election. 

This could actually work in Corbett's favor. The argument has been that Corbett as attorney general slowed the investigation until he was assured that he had won the gubernatorial election. In addition, many followers of Joe Paterno despise Corbett since they believe that the governor led the lynch mob to fire Paterno in 2011.

Here is the ESPN the Magazine story that credited Corbett with firing Paterno: <http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/7770996/in-wake-joe-paterno-death-sandusky-sex-abuse-scandal-power-struggle-spread-penn-state-state-capital>

Those Penn State fans are going to vote against Corbett regardless of the the outcome of that investigation. In fact, since Kane's investigation is about the legal, not political, aspect of the Sandusky case, the truth is that Corbett probably did little illegal in the case. His malfeasance is more likely political, which is more difficult to prove.

Corbett will also have mega-bucks to finance this campaign. Wolf has woven an enticing narrative of himself and his family in the primary, and he funded that himself with a $10 million dollar loan to his campaign. Corbett will have the financial advantage since he has catered to the big-moneyed interests in Pa. and beyond, and look for him to go negative immediately. He even took shots at Wolf during the Democratic primary. 

Some democrats believe that Wolf is too soft-spoken and is not tough enough to face Corbett, but we will see. Some political analysts compare Corbett's problems to those of former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum in 2006. However, those cases are different. Santorum chose to campaign with Pres. George W. Bush, who was very unpopular at that time. Second, Santorum moved his family to Virginia where he lived in a big home despite trying to convince voters that he lived in Pa. While living in Va., his children were home-schooled through the Pa. Cyber School network. That meant that the Penn Hills School District had to pay for most of the tuition for those five children. Taxpayers revolted.

In short, Corbett is very unpopular -- he had a 59 percent disapproval rating in the Rasmussen survey -- and that is going to be hard to overcome. However, one of my friends who favors Wolf believes that this race will go down to the wire. 

Corbett has five months to make his case to Pa. voters.