Why can’t Penn State win close football games?

… abysmal record in final minutes

David Jones of the Patriot-News made his point very succinctly after Penn State had lost its second consecutive game in the final minutes, basically taking themselves out of the national playoff hunt.

“In every one of Penn State's last five losses dating back to the 52-49 Rose Bowl defeat to Southern California, the Nittany Lions have had the lead with 5:00 remaining on the clock. That's how you come up with five losses by a total of 12 points during that 20-game stretch. You don't see that every day. And a team has to be pretty damn competitive to win all the other games in the span, not to mention 8 prior to it. That is, after all, a 23-5 stretch.”

David Jones, Oct. 14, PennLive.com

Coach James Franklin has brought back the Penn State football program from the abyss of reduced scholarship and embarrassment from the Jerry Sandusky scandal.

However, he seemingly cannot bring them over the top of the national rankings. Jones clearly points out that in close games against top competition, Penn State has folded down the stretch.

The question is, “Why?”

Everyone will say that coaching is a factor, and certainly, it is. However, this is certainly puzzling. No coach does this deliberately. If so, are they just “snake-bit” or are they just making crucial errors in some areas?

That is difficult to decipher. All the planning in the world cannot replicate what happens late in games. And in the Iowa game in 2017, the Nittany Lions came back and won a game that they probably should not have.

And, do not forget the 2016 game against Ohio State in which the Nittany Lions were down 21-7 entering the fourth quarter and scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to win, 24-21. That win propelled them to the Big Ten title and to the Rose Bowl, and probably should have given them a spot in the national championship race.

So, all of this has happened since the loss to the Southern Cal Trojans in that Rose Bowl game.

What happens?

In some games, critics of James Franklin have said that he became too conservative. That is only natural when teams build leads. The Nittany Lions had a 12-point lead with eight minutes to go against the Buckeyes and lost.

However, rather than look to the coaching, the Nittany Lion defense was horrible down the stretch. They just could not tackle after playing relatively well throughout the first 53 minutes. That is not coaching. That is players failing to play fundamental football in the final minutes.

That is hard to change. After the Michigan State loss last week, Jones analyzed what he believes the problem is.

“But what is also usually true about teams that lose close games? They can't get a first down to close out a game when they really need it. And they can't get a stop to close one out either. Both were true about the Lions in their 21-17 loss to Michigan State. When they needed a single first down to end the game, the offensive line could not get a push against MSU's tough front seven. And the Lions were forced to punt.

“Then, once MSU got the ball back, a Penn State defense that had been very good all game, never could get pressure on Spartan quarterback Brian Lewerke. And the 6-3 junior picked them apart, finishing with his 25-yard TD pass to Felton Davis at 0:19 left in the game. You can't really blame Amani Oruwariye who had skin-tight coverage on Davis but didn't turn on the ball in time. Oruwariye had won his share of the battle with Davis all game. At some point, the defensive front has to be able to win scrimmage and get pressure on the QB. They didn't do so much all game and didn't at all when it mattered.

“Penn State has won games with speed in the back seven on defense during these two years and lots of explosive plays from its skill players. But when it's really needed to win scrimmage in a tight game, it's come up short more often than not. That's a trend that must be altered for the Lions to become versatile enough to win different types of games.”

So, what he is saying is that this usually does not come down to coaching. It results from execution late in games, and why that does not occur is a conundrum for all coaches. If I knew the answer to that, I would market it.

Penn State is now in trouble

After facing Indiana today, a game that they should win on the road, the Lions must battle Iowa, Michigan, and then Wisconsin. On Nov. 3, they must confront Michigan in Ann Arbor, and the Wolverines have been on a roll after a season-opening loss to undefeated Notre Dame. Any of those teams, however, could beat the Lions.

Remember, Franklin has put together back-to-back 11-2 seasons. They could conceivably win only eight or nine games this year if he does not right the ship.

After the Ohio State loss, he called Penn State a “great” team that was battling to become an “elite” squad. The truth is that this team is not great, and no team in the Big Ten is really elite, though the Buckeye fans think they are.

Regardless, Penn State has to now face an Indiana team that is poised to defeat them because of their consecutive disappointing losses. The season could be very challenging for Franklin and Co.