Will Mike Tomlin, who was hired as a result of the Rooney Rule, become the next black NFL head coach to fall?

… the rule has not worked

At the end of last season, some were shocked when five black head coaches in the NFL were fired, leaving the league with just four. The lamentation was that the Rooney Rule that was intended to promote diversity in a league dominated by black players had failed.

One coach was avoided the axe was one who was hired as a result of the Rooney Rule: Mike Tomlin, who ironically, was hired by the Rooneys. Dan Rooney, who succeeded his father as owner and then CEO of the Steelers, was the one who proposed the rule. Art Rooney II was in on the hire, too.

The story about Tomlin’s hiring has been repeated many times. The Steelers were set on hiring Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. However, in order to comply with the Rooney Rule, one black head coach has to be interviewed. That has been the rule for 13 years.

That led to the interview of Tomlin, who had been a defensive coordinator for only one year — with the Minnesota Vikings — and did not have a very thick resume.

The Rooneys were floored with Tomlin’s ability to articulate himself. They thought that they had just run into a 21st Century Chuck Noll — the architect of Steeler Nation, the man who had won four Super Bowls in six years in the 70s.


At first, things looked good — he won a Super Bowl in his second season and got to another one in his fourth. Since then? Nothing close in the past decade, though he wins a lot of games in what has been a two-team division.

That is about to change, and with all of the drama that has taken place in Pittsburgh the past few years, it has the perennial doormats in the AFC-North, the Cleveland Browns, being picked to win the division this year — not the Steelers, who did not make the playoffs last year either.

If they do not win the division or make the playoffs this year, Tomlin, despite his .654 winning percentage. Steeler fans do not care as much about the regular-season record as they do about the post-season one. The Steelers have won just three playoff games in the past eight seasons despite that lofty regular-season record.

Has the Rooney Rule failed?

The five black head coaches fired last season were Todd Bowles by the Jets, Hue Jackson with Cleveland, Vance Joseph by Denver, Marvin Lewis by Cincinnati, and Steve Wilks by Arizona. The only one who could be questioned was that of Wilks since he was in only his first season. Every coach should be given more than one season to succeed.

With Brian Flores the only black head coach hired — by Miami — the number of black head coach is five. That is the fewest since the Rooney Rule was instituted.

However, as an Associated Press analysis noted in January, none of the black coaches who were fired had any reason to complain in terms of wins and losses,

To be fair, none of the firing or hiring decisions made this offseason was viewed in a vacuum as unjust. Since the start of the 2016 season, Bowles, Jackson, Joseph, Lewis and Wilks combined for a record of 50-132-2, a woeful winning percentage of .277.

Dave Campbell and Josh Dubow, “AP analysis: 

Few minority NFL coaches in top offensive jobs,” January 30, 2019

Bowles (26-41), Lewis (19-28 past three seasons), Joseph (11-21 in two seasons), and Jackson (11-44-1) cannot argue about their firings because of their records. Joseph had only two seasons and Wilks (3-13) may not have had sufficient opportunities, but neither demonstrated possibilities for the future.

So, the black coaches have not put up great numbers, other than Tomlin’s regular-season numbers. Tony Dungy, former Tampa Bay and Indianapolis Colts coach, said that this should not necessarily be cause for alarm,

I think it is cyclical. I also think a lot of owners don’t know or understand what goes into being a successful head coach. If I coach my quarterback really well I will have a good team, of course, and they feel the guy who coaches the quarterback really will be a successful head coach, but we have seen that’s not necessarily the case. For every Doug Pederson [Philadelphia Eagles coach who won a Super Bowl] or Sean McVay, who are great, we see (many) who don’t work out.

AP: Jan. 30, 2019

Not many black offensive coordinators

The AP analysis notes that most of the blacks who have been hired as head coaches have been like Tomlin, from the defensive side. Dungy notes that everyone now is looking for the next Sean McVay, who was the great play caller who was hired by the Los Angeles Rams last year at age 30 — and promptly took them to the Super Bowl.

However, a decade ago, it was the defensive coaches who were hot,

The hunt for the next McVay is similar to what happened starting more than a decade ago when coaches with ties to Dungy and his Tampa 2 defensive system were the hot commodities. Four of Dungy’s former defensive assistants — all minorities — went on to get head coaching jobs: Tomlin, Herm Edwards, Lovie Smith and Leslie Frazier …

[But a]fter a season in which the four conference finalists were the four highest-scoring teams in the league, the emphasis is firmly on offense.

“Ratings are up. Points scored are higher. People love offense. The rules have gone to offense. So there’s a bias toward offensive head coaches right now,” Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper said …

AP: Jan. 30, 2019

Even the son of the architect of the Rooney Rule realizes that few blacks received offensive coordinator positions,

“For whatever reason, the opportunity for minority coaches seems to be stronger on the defensive side of the ball and the coaches that have advanced to become head coaches from the minority perspective, most of them have come from the defensive side,” said Steelers president Art Rooney II, son of Dan Rooney. “It’s something we need to look at: ‘How do we improve the opportunities on the offensive side for minority coaches?’ ”

AP: Jan. 30, 2019

Last season, 11 black defensive coordinators were in the NFL, but only one black offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy of the Kansas City Chiefs.

An AP analysis last season found that just under 35 percent of all coaches in the NFL were minorities, 216 of 621.

Will Tomlin bounce back?

A coach who has won about 65 percent of his games should not be on the hot seat. However, a coach who allows drama to overtake his team and keep it out of the playoffs could be if his team does not bounce back from a shaky season.

Tomlin has his share of problems with the departures of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, at least from a productive standpoint. But, Bell was gone last year, and they have replacements for him. If Ju-Ju continues his stellar play at wideout, now as the number 1 receiver, and James Washington comes along — and if Ben Roethlisberger can become consistent again at the age of 36 — and if the defense improves from last season — many ifs, but if those ifs are overcome, then the Steelers could show that the Brown-mania may have been simply a charade.

And save Tomlin’s job.

It is possible — more possible than the Rooney Rule succeeding.