Did the College Football Playoff committee just hand the Minnesota Gophers a huge victory by ranking Penn State ahead of Clemson and in the top four for this year’s playoff?



… Is the CFP actually worse than the BCS, with just two more teams?

Coaches often tell their players to avoid making derogatory comments about their opponents prior to the football game. Those statements make their way into the media, whether it is television or on the internet the old antiquated newspaper clippings that can be clipped and placed on the bulletin board in the locker room.

However, sometimes outside forces can do that work for them, and that occurred on Tuesday for Coach James Franklin of Penn State read that his Nittany Lions had leapfrogged undefeated reigning national champion Clemson into fourth place in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

It occurred for LSU Coach Ed Orgeron twice in the past two weeks when it leapfrogged Alabama in the Top 25 AP rankings and then were placed one spot ahead of the Crimson Tide at number two in the unbelievably biased CFP rankings.

And, ironically, it occurred for first-year Ohio State Coach Ryan Day when somehow the CFP group ranked them number one after the Big Ten was shut out of the past two seasons of the CFP because the Buckeyes had been decimated and embarrassed by Clemson the last time that they were controversially included.

What has happened here is that each of those three teams will have its next game and games more difficult because their opponents will have some anger and venom at how the process has worked.

First, Penn State.

Nittany Lions vs. the Gophers

This is a battle of undefeateds in November?

Penn State fans who believe that the Gophers are overrated should remember a one-point loss that the Nittany Lions suffered at the hands of Minnesota a few years back, one that devastated their season.

In order to evaluate these teams, I will use the most reliable power rankings in college football, those by Jeff Sagarin. [http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm]

Both teams are 8-0, and Sagarin has Penn State at fifth and Minnesota at 25th. However, the schedule that the Gophers have played thus far is ranked 82nd by Sagarin. However, the Nittany Lions have not exactly played a tough schedule either by these metrics, being ranked 29th. However, this is much tougher than the one that the Gophers have played.

However, in fairness to the Gophers, their schedule is heavily back-loaded. After PSU this Saturday, they face Iowa [16], Northwestern [75], and then Wisconsin [8], which could end up being the battle for the Big Ten West.

So, Minnesota has the 5th, 8th, and 16th-ranked Sagarin teams on its November slate.

Penn State, however, may be highly overrated, though the CFP and Sagarin and the college football polls do not think so. 

My slant on this is that we will know at the end of September because the Lions have two undefeated teams on its November schedule, Ohio State [1st] and the Badgers. However, the Lions also have Indiana [34] and Rutgers [135] on the schedule. Upsets are always possible, but Rutgers should really be an FCS school.

The reality is that while PSU may be overrated, people should not say so until they have played the top opponents. And, while Minnesota is not ranked very high in Sagarin’s chart and has the 82nd ranked schedule, they are still undefeated and will host the Nittany Lions in their lair. That makes a big difference.

Add in the fact that PSU is now ranked as one of the four teams to make the CFP playoffs, the Gophers have just one more reason to pull off a fabulous upset for their program.

And, it could happen.

Why?

Franklin’s woeful road record against ranked opponents

What should give the Gophers more confidence is James Franklin’s record against top-ranked teams — on the road.

For instance, he is 0-6 in these games over the past four years in those road games,

  • 2015: 38-10 loss at No. 1 Ohio State 
  • 2015: 55-16 loss at No. 6 Michigan State
  • 2016: 49-10 loss at No. 4 Michigan
  • 2017: 39-38 loss at No. 6 Ohio State
  • 2017: 27-24 loss at No. 24 Michigan State
  • 2018: 42-7 loss at No. 5 Michigan
The one-point loss to Ohio State in 2017 when the Lions were number two in the country, followed by a loss to a Michigan State team that was not that good, really hurt, as did last year’s one-point loss to OSU at Penn State.

So, that is one reason that many people believe that Penn State is once again overrated and should never be where they are in the CFP rankings.

As for the Gophers, this is an incredible opportunity to prove that even though they have not yet played a tough schedule, they are still up to the task of playing the country’s best teams.

LSU and Alabama, SEC have some reason to be offended by CFP

The team that probably has the most reason to feel snubbed is LSU. They have wins over three teams that were ranked in the top 10 when they competed: Auburn was ninth as was Texas and Florida was seventh.

The truth, though, is that the fact that the Tigers leapfrogged Alabama into number 1 in the polls may give the Crimson Tide some reason to feel snubbed. The Tide is ranked third in the CFP alignment, and if they beat the Tigers this weekend, they will no doubt be number 1 in the polls and probably in the next CFP rankings.

The SEC West, which Sagarin has Alabama at number 2 and LSU at 4, is ranked as the top conference in the country. The SEC East is number 5.

LSU is averaging more than 45 points a game with a potential Heisman Trophy winner, but it cannot complain. It has the Crimson Tide this weekend, and that will probably determine whether or not it will continue to be in the CFP picture.

Still, having a Big Ten team like Ohio State ahead of it has to hurt the SEC — including Alabama. The Big Ten has not even qualified for the CFP the past two seasons. And Ohio State made the CFP, in a controversial move, about four years ago, bit Ohio State was decimated by Clemson 30-0.

More on that and Ohio State and Clemson's snub in a later post.

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