Tom Brady will never finish a season in Tampa Bay: Going from a coach like Bill Bellichick to Bruce Arians is like going from Vince Lombardi to Homer Simpson

Coach Homer Simpson
Photo by Gifer

… Steelers fired Arians for good reasons

So, Tom Brady is going to discover — at the age of 43 — what it is like to try and play without Bill Bellichick.

While I have no use for Bellichick, one of the most ethically-challenged professional coaches of all time, still, he took a sixth-round pick and gave him a system that allowed him to thrive and become one of the most successful quarterbacks of all time.

Bellichick protected Brady, unlike Bruce Arians, the Tampa Bay coach who will not try and make him a viable QB outside the Bellichick cocoon. Good luck with that.

Arians was fired as the offensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2011 for a variety of reasons: 
  • A total lack of discipline with his players. 
  • An inability to understand that the running game should be a part of any passing offense. An unwillingness to understand that he was not the head coach. 
  • An inability to have offensive schemes in which the quarterback is protected. [Ben Roethlisberger was sacked more under him than ever in his career.] 
  • And, total reliance on a vertical passing game, the exact opposite of what Bellichick did for Brady in New England with his hunt-and-peck schemes that worked so well. 
So, this is not a match made in NFL heaven. If the league actually does have a season in 2020, which is a big “if” at this stage, Brady will never last an entire season in Florida.

Arians more Homer than Vince

One NFL analyst wrote this about the mismatch of Brady and Arians,

The fit between coach and quarterback remains iffy. Arians is known as a fun-n-gun coach, someone who wants his quarterbacks to make long throws. When his offenses have been at their best – first in Pittsburgh and then in Arizona – it’s been when he’s had a strong-armed quarterback who could throw the ball deep down the field outside the numbers, often supplemented with a sound running game.

That’s not Brady. He is a rhythm player: hit the back foot, get the ball out. Everything he does is about precision and timing. In New England, Brady was also the master of pre-snap manipulation. He controlled everything and the Patriots ran everything: two-back sets, spread-sets, motions, shifts, fullbacks, h-backs. The Patriots align players anywhere and everywhere. Players’ roles shift on a week-to-week, concept-to-concept basis. Wide receivers become ball-carriers, and they shift between inside and perimeter positions. Running backs are used as a deep threat in the passing game. It was a complex, all-encompassing system.

And it all flowed through Brady. He digested each morsel of information and made sure the team used the best play possible against whichever look a defense presented. Indeed, the Patriots system was always at its best when Brady was able to jump into the no-huddle, marshaling things alone at the line of scrimmage.

None of that fits the Arians philosophy. The coach is more rigid, more reliant on a core set of plays, with far less pre-snap motion, which typically helps a quarterback identify what a defense is trying to do. Over the past decade, Brady’s Patriots have hovered around the 20% motion mark. The Bucs under Arians: 6%.


Oliver Connolly, “Tom Brady will have more fun in Tampa, but will he win? The quarterback teamed up with Bill Belichick to become a ruthless winner in New England. Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians has a very different philosophy.” The Guardian, March 18, 2020

Why would Brady join a team of losers?

The Patriots had a winning percent of 125-35 (78 percent) in the past ten years while the Bucs have been 59-101 (37 percent), Connolly writes. What was Brady thinking?

And Bruce Arians has zero Super Bowl rings as a head coach.

Connolly calls this a “lifestyle” change for Brady. However, a change in lifestyle does not bring success, especially in terms of wins and losses. Is Brady going from a right-wing Republican to a hippie? The change is actually that dramatic,

Brady leaving the Patriots to join the Bucs is as much about lifestyle as anything else. Tampa’s coach, Bruce Arians, is famed for his laidback, there’s-more-to-life-than-football style. He drinks beers in the parking lots with the players and their families after games. He threatens to fire coaches if they miss a dance recital or ballgame or a family member’s birthday. “Those years don’t come back,” Arians famously said.

Arians certainly does not reflect the ruthless, win at all costs Patriot Way. For Brady, a man soon-to-be in his mid-40s, the family stuff starts to matter a whole lot more.


Oliver Connolly, The Guardian, March 18, 2020

Will Antonio Brown join Brady?

The Bucs do have good receivers in Mike Evans and former Penn Stater Chris Godwin. The rumors are that Antonio Brown could join them,

There is also a chance Antonio Brown joins the group. He and Brady have remained in close contact, and Brown worked under Arians back in his Pittsburgh days.

Oliver Connolly, The Guardian, March 18, 2020

So, why was Arians fired in Pittsburgh?

Bringing back A.B. would be problematic. First, the league would have to approve that, and right now, that is very unlikely. However, it does bring up the reason that Arians was fired by the Steelers nine years ago, something that still rankles Arians.

The firing made Brians very bitter, and that has not changed. Three years ago, he talked about it in a controversial conversation on HBO,

One of the most difficult moments in Arians' career came after the 2011 season when the Pittsburgh Steelers chose not to retain him as the team's offensive coordinator.

In an interview with Andrea Kremer for HBO's Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel, Arians said he felt betrayed by the Steelers after the team did not renew his contract. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said in March 2012 that he ultimately made the decision to replace Arians with Todd Haley, but Kremer said Arians believes the Steelers forced Tomlin's hand.

"(Tomlin) said, 'I can't get you the money,'" Arians told Kremer. "I said, 'OK.' He said, 'No, I can't get you a contract.' I said, 'Are you firing me?' He said, 'No.' Well, it's just a matter of words, Mike, OK. If I don't have a contract, I'm fired.' "

Arians still doesn't understand why the Steelers decided he had to go. He speculated he might have been dismissed because some within the Steelers' organization believed he was "too close" to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

"...I had done a good job," Arians said. "Maybe not the right image, but it was a damn good job. I was pissed. But again, time heals things."


Justin Knoblauch, “Bruce Arians: 'I was pissed' when 
Steelers fired me,” NFL.com, June 21, 2016

“Maybe not the right image.” That was part of it.

However, while Tomlin claims to have made the decision, Arians was right. The Rooneys, Art II and Dan, the owners, fired him. Art, the CEO, said publicly that the Steelers had to develop a running game — and that they had to protect their valuable QB.

Tomlin did not make that decision

Back in the 1980s when Dan Rooney forced Chuck Noll to fire his defensive coordinator, Tony Dungy, Noll refused. So, Rooney fired him.

Tomlin is far from being Chuck Noll. So, he takes the blame for a decision made by the owners even though the Steelers were 24-8 in Arians’ last two years — primarily because of a very strong defense.

In fact, while Arians takes credit for winning the only Super Bowl that Mike Tomlin has in his career, it was the defense — primarily James Harrison who turned a potential 14-point deficit into a positive with a 101-yard interception return — who won that game over the Cardinals more than a decade ago.

Conclusion

The last point is that Brady’s final season in New England proved that he is showing his age. Now at 43, he is not at a point where he should be making life-changing decisions.

But, he has, and now he has Homer Simpson instead of Bill Bellichick — which could mean that Bellichick may quit, too.

The Patriots are finally dead, but is Brady’s career.

Stay tuned.

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