Will Beaver Stadium, Heinz Field, and other Pennsylvania sports venues be filled this fall? Pa. is far short of “herd immunity”

… many positives, but many questions

Many colleges and universities are either requiring or encouraging their students to take the Covid vaccine. This is part of the effort to reach “herd immunity,” which is the point where people have either received the vaccine or have had the virus. That would lead to negating the worst of the coronavirus. 

To achieve that, 70 percent of the people will need to have one or the other, and the U.S. has a way to go to reach that — as does Pennsylvania. 

For football fans who want to see games in person this fall, many are not thinking about herd immunity — but they should. 

The new acting physician general of the state visited Penn State last week, but she was not ready for give any kind of diagnosis of what might happen in Beaver Stadium — or in any stadium. 

Full or part capacity?

A story about the Penn State visit outlined some of the issues facing the schools and the state as they wrestle with getting the pandemic put in the past,

More than half of Pennsylvania’s population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, but the state’s acting physician general still couldn’t say for certain Monday whether the commonwealth would achieve herd immunity — or whether Beaver Stadium would experience full capacity in the fall.

Dr. Denise Johnson, who took over in March, made herself available to local media for about 10 minutes Monday inside Penn State’s Bryce Jordan Center, after touring the vaccine clinic inside the basketball facility …

When asked the odds that, by summer’s end, Pennsylvania would achieve herd immunity — meaning a vaccination rate of at least 70%, based on many experts’ opinions — Johnson said that simply depended on individual behavior “and I’m not very good at predicting that.” 

When asked, based on the current trajectory, whether Penn State might be able to host full-capacity football games this fall, she simply responded, “If they get vaccinated” before thanking reporters and leaving the podium.

Josh Moyer, “Pa.’s Physician General visits BJC, takes questions on COVID-19

 herd immunity, Beaver Stadium,” Centre Daily Times, May 3, 2021

That did not answer many of the pressing questions. 

The “hesitants” could be the difference

Those who are reluctant to take the vaccine could be problematic, and since just about half in Pa. have done so, there is much work to do prior to football season,

Based on reporting from the New York Times, which aggregated data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pennsylvania currently ranks 10th nationally with 50.3% of its population having received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. But that unvaccinated half could prove tricky for health officials; a recent Pitt/Carnegie Mellon survey found 22% of its respondents were vaccine hesitant.

“Many young people don’t see the urgency,” Johnson said. “They don’t think they’re going to get sick. Or, if they get sick, they don’t think they’re going to be hospitalized or have long-term consequences. And that’s just not true.”

Josh Moyer, Centre Daily Times, May 3, 2021

Big Ten will defer to schools 

This fall, the decision about how many people will be allowed into football venues in the Big Ten will be made by the schools themselves based on local guidelines. 

Late last month, Penn State said that they are hoping for a full stadium but are preparing for a variety of scenarios,

Penn State vice president of athletics Sandy Barbour said she is hopeful for full capacity being permitted at Beaver Stadium for the 2021 football season but also is planning for more limited options based on the latest local and state guidelines.

In a letter to season-ticket holders made public Thursday, Barbour said that, while the current Pennsylvania standard for outdoor stadiums is 50% capacity with six feet of physical distancing, it would not be possible to achieve that figure at Beaver Stadium, where the capacity is around 107,000.

“While simple math would tell you that we could fit approximately 53,500 fans at 50% capacity, the reality is, with six-foot social distancing, we are only able to accommodate less than 20,000 fans,” Barbour said in the letter.

She said she will release information in the coming weeks based on limited-capacity options with six feet and three feet of social distancing while also planning for “a full stadium scenario throughout the 2021 season.”

Barbour cited a recent announcement by the Big Ten that the conference will not regulate crowd sizes this season but “defer to local guidance of each institution as it relates to attendance policies.”

Joe Juliano, “Penn State working on scenarios for attendance at 2021 football 

games in Beaver Stadium,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 29, 2021

Pitt facing same dilemma 

The Pitt Panthers compete in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and like the others, they hope to be able to fill Heinz Field. 

However, they will have to follow the state and local guidelines about stadiums, just like Penn State. Right now, that is still problematic.

Many schools are encouraging students to take the Covid vaccine, which can help alleviate the danger of having another wave in the fall. That could ruin football. 

But, how that pans out will be interesting to watch over the next few months.