Was 2020 an outlier season for James Franklin? Can the Nittany Lions bounce back in 2021?

Coach James Franklin

… one prognosticator thinks so


To say that 2020 was a disappointing season for Penn State and its football coach, James Franklin, would be an understatement. 


Some call it an “outlier” season which means that it was unusual, something that was out of character. With outlier situations, a return to the norm is usually the norm. 


Some see that with the Nittany Lions this year for a number of reasons. Perhaps they are over-optimistic.


Perhaps not. 


One prognosticator who believes that Franklin’s team will rebound is Mark Drumheller of Yahoo Sports. So, I decided to focus on what he is saying. 


Tough situation in 2020


What happened that caused the problems of last season? Quite a few things beyond Franklin’s control. Remember, just two years ago, the Nittany Lions entered November undefeated and with a great shot at a spot in the national playoffs.


Unfortunately, Franklin saw those hopes dissipate with a loss to the Gophers of Minnesota, who also happened to be undefeated. A loss to Ohio State then ruined what could have been a great season. 


However, Drumheller has confidence that Franklin’s team will rebound in 2021,


Penn State closed out its most disappointing season under James Franklin with four straight wins after dropping its first five games. Last season was challenging for Franklin, who had to adjust to being without key players on both sides of the ball.

 

Micah Parsons opted out and was selected 12th overall by the Dallas Cowboys, and RB Journey Brown had to withdraw due to medical reasons. Penn State forged ahead and lost the opener to Indiana on a controversial call in the end zone. 


That missed opportunity was a precursor to the first five games as the Nittany Lions continued to slide. After a strong finish, Franklin embraces the clean slate that a new season brings.


This season will be a much-needed fresh start for QB Sean Clifford. New OC Mike Yurcich will overhaul a Penn State offense that ranked 83rd in explosive plays. Yurcich comes over from Texas, where he lit up defenses for 42.7 points per game — fifth best in the FBS. 


In Yurcich's last five seasons, his offenses' average ranking is just outside the Top 10. He contributed to the development of NFL quarterbacks Justin Fields, Mason Rudolph, and most recently Sam Ehlinger. Getting the most out of Clifford will be key to this season.

 

Mark Drumheller, “NCAA betting: Penn State looking to bounce back 

from outlier season,” Yahoo Sports, August 23, 2021


He makes a case for Yurcich, but Franklin’s success with offensive coordinators has been spotty other than Joe Morehead, who had decided that the head gig at Fordham was not going to get him a Div. I FBS job. 


However, my reservation about him is that he is in his fourth season in the past four years with a different team each year. 


Offense could be the key


The Yahoo story makes case that perhaps Yurcich is the key for the improvement of Sean Clifford, who struggled mightily last season,


I expect to see positive results very quickly in Penn State's passing game. The offense ranked 37th in yards per game and now returns nine starters, including star wideout Jahan Dotson. Dotson's 884 yards and eight TDs last season led the Big Ten. 


The emergence of sophomore Parker Washington gives Clifford the necessary weapons to succeed in Yurcich's offense. The Lions' success hinges on Clifford's ability to execute a high-powered attack while protecting the football.


Mark Drumheller, Yahoo Sports, August 23, 2021


The fact that he has veterans that were missing last year is key, but the development of Clifford into a top QB is even more significant than the return of nine starters. 


Talent is there, isn’t it?


One rap on Franklin is that his recruiting classes have not been as strong as he had when he was first hired. So, is the talent present with this team?


Does Penn State have the talent to turn things around? 


Penn State's record last season was not reflective of the talent they rostered. The Nittany Lions continue to be a top 15 recruiting program over the last five years and show no signs of dropping off. 


They lost two games last season In which they outgained their opponents by 200-plus yards (Indiana and Nebraska). Putting those two losses into perspective, they should have at least secured a 6-3 season.


Mark Drumheller, Yahoo Sports, August 23, 2021


Can the Lions win ten games again?


Hitting double digits in wins may be challenging, but if they are able to earn a win in their opener against the Badgers of Wisconsin, then it could happen,


Penn State's win total at BetMGM is currently at 8.5 with the odds -125 to the over. 


The Lions are the betting favorites in nine of their 12 games and have a talent edge against almost all opponents. The schedule presents some challenges, starting with the opener at Wisconsin. 


Even if Penn State drops that game, they can still hit nine wins by winning three out of the four games below:


• Auburn

• Indiana

• at Iowa

• Michigan


I am betting Penn State to bounce back this year and go over the 8.5 wins. The Lions are a classic example of a team undervalued due to a 4-5 record in an outlier season. When you evaluate each game, Penn State outplayed most of their opponents on the stat sheet. Critical turnovers in high-leverage situations cost them, and this will be where you see Yurcich's impact. 


His history of elevating his quarterbacks is enough for me to project Penn State's ability to close games offensively rather than letting them slip away. 


I'm betting on that being all the difference in a big year at Happy Valley.


Mark Drumheller, Yahoo Sports, August 23, 2021


So, Franklin has one guy in his corner. 

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