Steelers cut a 2021 break: The NFC-Central gives the Steelers a chance at a winning season

Next the Bears and then the woeful Lions: Can they avoid the "Tomlin Tumble"?


… playing the Bears and then the Lions with two potential wins


Back in August, CBS Sports had projected that the Pittsburgh Steelers would have the toughest schedule in 2021 based on the numbers that teams compiled in 2020.


That has proven to be way off base as Pittsburgh is now projected to have the 15th toughest schedule in the NFL. 


Why the difference? Because the AFC North is playing teams from the NFC-Central. That means the Lions (0-8), the Bears (3-5), and the Vikings (3-4). The only team in the NFC Central with a winning record is the Packers (7-1), who also benefit from playing in one of the weakest divisions in football and have the 23rd weakest schedule in the NFL.


So, in reality, the only tough team that the Steelers have to face among the four is Green Bay. 


That has given them a tremendous chance at a winning record, though in reality, it does not mean that they will finish above third place in the AFC North. The Ravens and Bengals still are favored above the Steelers, although Pittsburgh has two games remaining against the Ravens and one against the Bengals (in Cincinnati).


The Steelers also lucked out in that the Browns, picked to finish first or second in the division, have again tanked thus far. However, remember that the Browns finished strong last year, so they may come along if their QB decides to play some quality minutes. 


Wrong prognosis from CBS


Here is what the research from the CBS story said about the Steelers in August,


if there's any team that's now regretting their vote for the expanded season, it's probably the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that's because they're slated to face the league's most difficult strength of schedule in 2021. 


Based on the final standings from 2020, the Steelers will be going into 2021 with a strength of schedule of .574, which not only gives them the most difficult schedule for the upcoming season, but it makes them one of only two teams in the NFL -- along with the Ravens -- that will have a strength of schedule above .550. 


The Steelers better get their offensive line situation figured out quickly, because they'll be facing a brutal schedule that will include 10 games against playoff teams from last season. Of those 10 games, three will come against teams that played in either the AFC or NFC Championship games last year as the Steelers will be playing the Chiefs, Bills and Packers. 


John Breech, “2021 NFL strength of schedule ranking for all 32 teams heading into the inaugural 17-game season,” CBS Sports, August 25, 2021


So much for that projection.


The late-season "Tomlin Tumble"


The truth is that the Steelers could manage to reach the playoffs, but before optimistic, they must remember the perennial “Tomlin Tumble”: Remember the 11-0 start that ended with four losses in five games in 2020? It has become a Steeler tradition. 


Now what? Can they avoid this in 2021?


Their numbers are going to have to improve. The benefitted from injuries, one to Russell Wilson that gave them a win over Seattle and another over the Browns, who probably should have started Case Keenum instead of the injured Baker Mayfield last week. In addition, they have the Titans too, and they just lost Derrick Henry. 


The Steelers have their own slew of injuries, so that is a major concern. Their vaunted defense is ranked toward the bottom, and their offensive numbers are not very impressive either. 


Nevertheless, they have a shot at a winning season — they need nine Ws — because of their relatively weak schedule. They have the Bears and then the Lions, who have just three wins between them. 


However, knowing about the Tomlin Tumble, do not be surprised if the Lions pull out their first victory of the season against the Steelers.


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