Do the Pitt Panthers really have a shot at landing an NCAA tournament spot?



… do they deserve it? 

With the 8th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels scheduled to face the Pitt Panthers at the Pete tomorrow with a noon tip, a question was raised online today for Post-Gazette beat reporter Craig Meyer.

Here is is: @PGSportsNow so are you feeling good, or great, about Pitt's tourney chances?

Translated, can the Pitt Panthers, who are tied for 12th in the ACC right now with a 4-17 record, 15-13 overall, earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament?

A month ago, with the Panthers mired in the ACC cellar and Coach Larry Stallings battling his players in the media, that would have been a ludicrous question.

Is it today?

On an Oscar weekend, Meyer used a movie analogy to answer the question: "Pitt's been stuck in a position similar to Lloyd Christmas at the end of Dumb and Dumber. The likelihood of a happy ending is so obviously bleak, but he's still holding out hope Mary Samsonite will say yes to a date."

Finally, he says, "Yes, I'm saying there's a chance ... but not much of one."

What could they do?

Well, first, upsetting the Tar Heels would be a huge boost to them. After all, their RPI with the NCAA is 63 and Jeff Sagarin has them at a 62. There are 68 teams selected, of course, but some of them will probably have an RPI over 100. That is the nature of the beast.

The Panthers certainly opened many eyes when they upset Florida State, a ranked opponent, 80-66.

However, with the Panthers having two more games on the road next week, Georgia Tech on Tuesday and Virginia on Saturday, perhaps a win in each -- or certainly both -- would help their chances. They did defeat Virginia in January in Pittsburgh.

However, Meyer notes that for an at-large berth to become reality, the Panthers would have to perform well in the ACC tournament in Brooklyn in a few weeks. "The dreams of a spot in the field of 68 aren't officially dashed until a team loses in the conference tournament, but this team's got little, if any, margin for error. Of late, I've held firm to the idea that 19 wins gets the Panthers some solid footing in legitimate bubble conversations, though it obviously depends upon how and against whom those wins come. I'm going to work off the assumption this team, given its lack of depth, can't make any kind of a deep run in the ACC tournament. I'd be shocked if they win more than two games and even two might be a stretch."

Do they deserve a berth?

It is going to be hard to give the Panthers a shot unless they win their last three games and do well in the tournament. Even then, that is a reach.

The loss to Louisville earlier this season, the worst in many years, was downright embarrassing. Trying to rebuild this program after this season is going to be challenging -- unless they knock off the Tar Heels tomorrow.

Stranger things have happened.

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