NCAA Football Final Four will probably not include Georgia: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma

… weak schedule dooms Bulldogs

What the 2018 conference championships pointed out was that anyone of the top four could win the national title. The Crimson Tide, which won all of its SEC and out of conference games, looked very vulnerable in charging back from a two-touchdown deficit to defeat SEC-East champ Georgia. In fact, if the Tide had not received a very big break when it fumbled into the end zone and then recovered it for a TD — one that overruled the call on the field — the title game would have gone into OT instead of being a 35-28 win by the Tide.

One team that hopes to knock off the Tide, Clemson, looked very sloppy at times against Pitt, which was a 27 1/2-point underdog in the ACC title game. While some have questioned Notre Dame’s inclusion in the Final Four since they do not play in a conference, the truth is that Clemson fans might be very worried about the Fighting Irish in the national semifinal.

After the first quarter, the Tigers were very sloppy. They are talented, but certainly not dominant.

Will committee pick the best four teams and include a two-loss team?

Technically, the College Football Playoff committee should select the best four teams in college football. That will probably not happen.

Two years ago, the selection committee went against its own rules and selected a team for the Final Four that had not won its conference title. The committee was roundly criticized, justifiably, for that error. Then the team that did not even make the Big Ten Conference championship, Ohio State, was embarrassed by Clemson in a 30-0 rout.

Ironically, that led to the Big Ten being embarrassed last year by being shut out of the Final Four last year — and which will likely be repeated this year.

The logic that the committee used in 2016 — “we selected the best four teams in the country” and avoided giving the final spot to Big Ten champ Penn State — was made because the Nittany Lions had two losses, one a 3-point loss to Pitt and the other a blowout to Michigan — is interesting because this year a case could be made for Georgia being the fourth best team in the playoffs.

The likelihood is that Georgia will not receive the fourth spot because of two losses — a 20-point regular-season defeat by LSU in addition to the conference title loss — but also for another reason. According to ESPN, the selection chair outlined the protocol very clearly.

Rob Mullens said this about the process. ”When you look at the protocol, it's very clear that when teams are comparable at the margins, there are four things to look at: obviously, head-to-head; comparable opponents; strength of schedule; then the one you mentioned, conference championship. It is the one data point that becomes available at the end of the season that's not available during."

ESPN concluded that based on Mullen’s comments, Georgia would be left out of the CFP. “That's not good news for Georgia, whose schedule strength will certainly be scrutinized by the committee. The Bulldogs' nonconference schedule includes Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee and UMass, and it doesn't have the conference championship to fall back on.”

Committee has to select Oklahoma as the 1-loss team
The committee will decide not to select the only undefeated team outside the big five conferences, Central Florida, though they could probably distinguish themselves much better than the OSU Buckeyes did two years ago. In order for a team outside the 5 to earn a spot, they would have to play — and beat — two top 10 teams in the conference 5 in the final rankings.

That essentially leaves Oklahoma and Ohio State, and how could they select a team that lost to a weak team from the Big Ten East, Purdue, by 29 points? And only defeated a Maryland team that had played without its head coach through the season, 52-51, after the Terrapins’ 2-point conversion failed?

Oklahoma’s only loss was to Big 12 competitor Texas during the regular season, and they avenged that loss yesterday, 39-27, to win the Big 12.

The committee has no other choice, even if it means relegating the Big Ten to the sidelines for the second consecutive season. Truth be told, the Big Ten teams must play better out-of-conference schedules if they hope to secure a berth in the future, and they have to work to buttress the bottom feeders in their conference — and may even have to consider realigning the two sections so that they are better balanced geographically.

Ohio State struggled at times to defeat a Northwestern team that had won the Big Ten West after losing to Akron early in the season. Pitiful performance.

My Final Four

Anyway, the Final Four should be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma, though I may move the Irish up to number 2 if I were picking. Clemson was that unimpressive to me in the title game.