Sorry, Big Ten football fans, the Big Ten -- Penn State, Ohio State, Gophers included — are all terribly overrated this year — and the historical numbers prove this point

 … three national titles in 50 years?

College football fans have been consistently told over the years about how tough Big Ten football is. However, history does not support this premise.

First, one determinant of how good a program is can be traced to how many national championships it has won. So, how many have the teams in the Big Ten won in the past 50 years?

Three. Yes, just three over that period. Ohio State has two (2014 and 2002) and Michigan one (1997), and that one was a split verdict, with the Wolverines winning the AP poll and Nebraska, then a member of the Big 8, winning the coach’s poll.

Penn State has won as many national titles as Ohio State in the past half-century — two (1982 and 1986)— but did so as an independent. The Nittany Lions have not won a national title since becoming a member of the Big Ten 26 years ago.

Yes, those are the numbers.

Ohio State is such a power, its fans say, but the Buckeyes have won just two national titles in the past 50 years. To place this in context, the Crimson Tide of Alabama have won five in just the past decade. 

No comparison.

Second

Second, another determinant is how well teams in the conference have done in the national playoffs. For the past two seasons, the Big Ten has been shut out of the College Football Playoffs.

Why? Perhaps because the last time that the conference had a representative in the CFP, Ohio State (2016), it was embarrassed by Clemson, 30-0, in the opening round.

Even the CFP computers over the last two years could make a determination that OSU should not be in after losing to a woeful Purdue team.

Third

Next, another determinant is how well the conferences have done in the past 20 years in terms of winning national titles. So, going back to 1999, how well have the conferences done?

SEC — 10

ACC — 5

Big 10 — 2

Big 12 — 2

Pac 12 — 1

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/index.html

Yes, the ACC, that basketball conference, has three more national titles over the past two decades than the “powerful” Big Ten.

Finally

The final determinant is how well the Big Ten has done against teams from other conferences. In this, the Big Ten teams have little to show for their toughness in 2019 because they did not play teams from other “Power 5” schools in their out-of-conference games.

The only team in the Big Ten who bucked that tradition in 2019 was Michigan, and they did quite well. Michigan played a long-standing rival, Notre Dame, and pummeled them (45-14). That is why I think that the Wolverines (10-2) have an outside chance against the Buckeyes today. They are playing at home, too, which is where they decimated Notre Dame.

For instance, the Buckeyes played Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, and Miami of Ohio in their three out-of-conference games. This is not unusual. Alabama and the SEC teams also play weak opponents in out-of-conference games. The difference is that they play some top teams like LSU and Georgia in the regular season and playoffs. Penn State played Idaho, Buffalo, and Pitt (Power 5 but ranked 44th when they played). Even with that, the Nittany Lions were just plain lucky to beat Pitt, which made some major coaching snafus in that game. [First and goal from the one and you throw the ball on first down?]

And the most overrated team in the Big Ten, in my estimation, is the Minnesota Gophers, who are suddenly ranked in the Top 10 because of their upset of Penn State.

All of Big Ten overrated in 2019

What outraged me, as a Penn State fan, was how overrated the Nittany Lions have been this year. Granted, the past two seasons, the Lions should have defeated the Buckeyes, losing both seasons by a point in games in which they have blown solid leads.

I was very upset at those losses, but I know that this year’s team is not even comparable talent-wise to that one two years ago that had Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley in the same backfield.

After watching a terribly boring PSU-Iowa game this season, I realized how far the Lions had fallen in terms of talent.

Yet, when the CFP rankings were first announced, Penn State was ranked fourth, ahead of Clemson, which was undefeated and had won two national titles in the past three seasons.

Even as a Penn State fan, albeit not one like I was in my younger years, I was outraged. How could this happen?

So, I wrote a blog that the decision by the CFP committee to do that almost certainly ensured that the Lions would lose their first game of the season to undefeated Minnesota — which they did.

Then, I started to look at the Gophers — and talk about a team that is vastly overrated.

Stats of the Gophers

Minnesota was 8-0 when they faced the Nittany Lions in Minneapolis. However, at that point, they had played only one Power 5 team with a winning record.

Their first three games were against teams that had poor power rankings according to the Sagarin Rankings, the most accurate in the country because they are based on mathematical projections.

Here are those three games, one of which is against a Div. I-AA — FCS — team:

San Diego State (68)
Fresno State (77)
Georgia Southern (103)

Here is the rest of their schedule and their power rankings prior to the Penn State game:

Purdue (69), 4-6

Illinois (59), 6-4

Nebraska (62), 4-5

Rutgers, (138), 2-7

Maryland (83), 3-7

Note that the highest ranked team in that group was Illinois at 59, and the only reason that the Illini were that high was because of a last-minute upset of Wisconsin, then ranked in the top 10. 

So, prior to playing Penn State, the highest-ranked team that the Gophers had faced had a power ranking of 59.

The Gophers’ strength of schedule was 70th in the country at that time.

So, you would think that the CFP computers would ignore their upset win over Penn State.

You would be wrong.

The CFP debacle

Despite the Gophers’ abhorrent schedule, the win over Penn State, which was also terribly overrated, gave them a lift that was unprecedented in the short history of the CFP.

However, the rationale used by Rob Mullens, the A.D. at Oregon who is chair of the group, is counter-intuitive.

Minnesota's victory over Penn State vaulted the Golden Gophers nine spots to No. 8. It's the largest jump into the top 10 in the CFP era and the second-biggest week-to-week jump in CFP rankings history.

"Obviously, we're looking at the full resume," committee chair Rob Mullens said of Minnesota. "As we mentioned last week, nonconference schedule wasn't as strong as some. And then they only played one team in their league with a winning record, until Penn State. But, when you watch the game last week, they beat a Penn State team that was then ranked No. 4. It impressed the committee until that point, we were really impressed with what Minnesota did."

The loss knocked the Nittany Lions down to No. 9, followed by Oklahoma at No. 10. Minnesota's victory over Penn State vaulted the Golden Gophers nine spots to No. 8. It's the largest jump into the top 10 in the CFP era and the second-biggest week-to-week jump in CFP rankings history.

"Obviously, we're looking at the full resume," committee chair Rob Mullens said of Minnesota. "As we mentioned last week, [the] nonconference schedule wasn't as strong as some. And then they only played one team in their league with a winning record, until Penn State. But, when you watch the game last week, they beat a Penn State team that was then ranked No. 4. It impressed the committee until that point, we were really impressed with what Minnesota did."

Looking at the full resume? Non-conference schedule wasn’t as strong as some? Who are the some? The FCS teams?

Today, the Gophers can prove that they are worthy as they play for the chance to represent the woefully weak Big Ten-West in the title game to probably face Ohio State. They must face Wisconsin, which has predominated over the weak division of the Big Ten.

The CFP has just given away any chance to give itself credibility. Later, when Georgia and LSU play for the SEC title, both of those teams should probably be in the final four.

Not likely to happen, even if LSU loses. The SEC should have two teams in the playoffs and the ACC one, Clemson. That leaves the Big Ten, the Big 12, and the Pac-12.

So, the most overrated conference in the past 50 years will again have a chance at the title — but will probably lose in the first round as it did three years ago.

Buckeyes did beat Penn State, but are ahead by just four?

Most realistic Penn State fans realize that they do not have the talent that they have had the past three seasons. They are young and could develop into a top team, but not this year despite the reality of finishing 10-2 after beating Rutgers.

So, if OSU is that great, why was their score against Penn State just 21-17 going into the fourth quarter? They ended up winning that game against a weaker PSU team than in recent years by just 11 points?

Remember, Penn State has as many national titles are the Buckeyes do over the past half-century.

Talk about overrated.