Are Penn State and other Big Ten football schools actually considering what Ohio State has, playing in front of 20 to 30 thousand fans this fall — or even in front of no fans at all —because of fears of a second wave of coronavirus?

Penn State's Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. 

Photo: Penn State University

… Nittany Lion fans fear a season without their iconic “White-Out”

“We have played a little bit with the social-distancing concept. And we know that will take us down south of 30,000 fans in the stands, actually closer to 20 to 22[K].”

Ohio State A.D. Gene Smith quoted in the Patriot-News, May 24, 2020

Penn State football fans are like those of many in the Big Ten and across the country: They cannot wait for the 2020 football season to begin. 

However, a column in today’s Harrisburg Patriot-News on the PennLive.com website by beat reporter/columnist Dave Jones threw some water on those dreams as he noted that some schools, notably Ohio State, have considered having their stadiums one-third full for games this fall to allow for social distancing. 

Jones also indicated that games may have to be played in front of no fans at all, which would be heart-breaking, but it is also realistic with the fears of a pandemic continuing or hitting a second wave,

The farther we progress toward summer and some sort of decision on whether college football will be played, it seems apparent one variable is beyond question: We are not having games before big crowds. Very possibly, we’ll have no fans at all …

On Thursday, Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith floated the idea of a one-fifth full Ohio Stadium:

“We have played a little bit with the social-distancing concept. And we know that will take us down south of 30,000 fans in the stands, actually closer to 20 to 22[K].”

David Jones, “If you want college football back even without crowds or bands, 

be prepared for harsh reality,” Patriot-News, May 24, 2020

Jones makes a case that games without fans, particularly without crazy student fans, would hurt the overall idea of playing college football in the first place. 

Ohio State AD Smith, though, is realistic about the fact that his school itself is not certain that it can reopen with students on campus. 

Bottom line: Must be safe for its athletes

In April, Smith said in a teleconference with other Big Ten A.D.’s that playing without fans, or with 1/3 or its fans, may not meet the requirements that are being established by the medical community,

Buckeyes athletic director Gene Smith wants to know, too. Football revenue accounts for the lion’s share of his budget annually. It is the reason Ohio State can support 31 sports and pay top dollar for coaches in its marquee sports.

However, Smith said the answer on football’s return this fall will come not from college administrators or even government officials but from medical professionals. He is prepared to wait until the scientific community says athletes can safely return to competition.

“We’re not going to rush this,” Smith said. “We’ve got a major societal issue. Football is important, but at the end of the day, we’ve got people dying.”

Smith said during a Friday teleconference that models for a 2020 football season have not come up during his daily call with Big Ten athletic directors. However, he has considered what playing the 2020 season without fans at Ohio Stadium might entail. Not only would that result in a financial hit of $35-50 million for the coming season, he is skeptical that arrangement could work in conjunction with public health policy.

“I struggle with that concept,” Smith said. "When I first heard that I said, ‘OK, that could work.’ Then I figured if we don’t have fans in the stands, we’ve determined it’s not safe for them in a gathering environment. So why would it be safe for the players?

Nathan Baird, “Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith skeptical about playing 

2020 football games without fans,” Cleveland.com, April 10, 2020

Fans worry about excitement, A.D.’s about money

While many universities and colleges will be able to sustain themselves despite the loss of the NCAA and conference basketball tournaments, football revenues are vital to most of them succeeding. 

If the teams play without fans in the stands, they could recoup some of that money, but Ohio State and Penn State are similar in that they rely upon gate revenues to sustain their athletic department,

Playing games without fans would presumably allow teams and conferences to draw media rights income. However, Smith said Ohio State makes a net $5-7 million per home game on parking, concessions, merchandise and other sales.

Smith confirmed Ohio State athletics will “end up in a good spot” financially when the fiscal year ends on June 30. That includes approximately $10.2 million in reserves. Those funds could be used to pay for unexpected expenses in the 2020-21 athletic calendar, such as hygiene-related equipment made necessary during the easing of restrictions on gathering.

However, Smith called the current economic environment “a lot more devastating” than the Great Recession of 2008-09. The loss of football revenue would create ripple effects not only throughout the athletic budget but the state.

Nathan Baird, Cleveland.com, April 10, 2020

Another possibility: A shortened or even a spring football season

In order to recoup some revenue, desperate A.D.’s are considering a variety of alternatives,

Several conference commissioners told ESPN the first and most important step is determining when it's safe to reopen campuses -- a decision they said they will leave to medical experts and government officials. (Brown University's president wrote this week in The New York Times that opening campuses this fall should be a "national priority." Stanford's president, meanwhile, said Tuesday he does not expect a decision about the fall quarter until sometime in June.)

Among the scenarios under consideration: a shortened season in which leagues would primarily play conference games; a delayed start to a full fall season; a spring season; or starting on time, but without fans. There also could be some combination of these scenarios. Officials also are bracing for the possibility of what several have referred to as an "interrupted season," in which the season begins but has to stop because a second wave of the virus hits. There's no specific timetable to make these decisions, but most coaches say they would need about two months to get their teams ready.

"You're coming out of a year in which now we have this financial crisis, and we have no certainty of what the future looks like," Mid-American Conference commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said. "We have no certainty of when we can begin again. We have no certainty of when we will have a football season, which is the economic engine for all of this."

“How will coronavirus affect the college football season in 2020?” ESPN, April 29, 2020

Decisions likely in June

Many college programs are reopening their workout areas to athletes in the summer. Ohio State will do so on June 8, and others on June 1 or sometime later in the month. 

However, many are waiting until their schools decide whether they can safely open their campuses in the fall, and much of that — as Smith indicated — is contingent on what medical experts are predicting.

Penn State has not yet made that decision about the education of its approximately 99,000 students, but Coach James Franklin said told ESPN that most experts say that players will need two months of workouts to be ready for the season,

Penn State coach James Franklin asked his sports scientist, strength staff and athletic trainers to weigh in on how long it will take to get the players physically prepared to play a game once they're given the green light to resume practice.

They began working on about six different models.

"Is it 30 days, is it 45 days?" Franklin said. "Sixty days? Ninety days? What is it that's needed to make sure that we're going to be in good shape, that the players are going to be able to protect themselves and go out and compete on a high level?"

The opinions vary from coach to coach, but the general consensus from our interviews is about eight weeks. 

“How will coronavirus affect the college football season in 2020?” ESPN, April 29, 2020

Until then, the situation is similar to walking on quicksand, sinking but hoping for a lifeline.