Two pundits pick the Browns to upset the Steelers, while another says that they should sign Cam Newton. What is taking place here?

#NeverASteeler

… Steelers feel like Rodney Dangerfield, “no respect”


I said on Sunday that the Steeler fans should root for the Browns to defeat them. That way, the teams would have a rematch in Pittsburgh on Sunday when all of the players in Black and Gold would be playing. 


Then I read that the Browns have major Covid issues, including head coach Kevin Stefanski having to step aside. 


So, this game should not even be on anyone’s upset radar, right?


Six ESPN commentators and writers picked what they thought would be the biggest upsets of the weekend. Two selected the Browns over the Steelers, and another said he would have if it were not for some Cleveland injuries. 


That was surprising, but here they are,


Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Browns (+6) over Steelers. I'll probably kick myself for picking a franchise to win its first playoff game in 26 years during its first playoff appearance in 18 years, but I dunno. The Steelers haven't looked right for more than a month and the Browns have been through the ringer over that period.


Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Browns (+6) over Steelers. A couple of matchup factors have me leaning this way. Pittsburgh's pass rush is scary, but Cleveland is well-equipped to counter it with its excellent pass-blocking tackles, plus a fairly high rate of play-action and designed rollouts. On the flip side: While Cleveland is hardly a dominant defense, it does run a high rate of zone coverage, which Ben Roethlisberger has particularly struggled with this season.


The one who considered and then deferred said this,


Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Titans (+3) over Ravens. If Browns coach Kevin Stefanski and left guard Joel Bitonio were available this weekend, I'd pick Cleveland, but I think their absences will be too challenging to overcome. The Titans' defense is the worst in the playoffs, but I think their offense is feisty enough to knock the Ravens -- who have faced an easy slate as of late -- off their game.


ESPN, NFL experts predict: Wild-card weekend upsets, QBs under pressure 

and Cam's 2021 landing spot. Jan. 5, 2021


What is going on here?


 I checked other analysts, too, and while a majority appear to be favoring the Steelers, a significant minority are not. Why is that?


Here are the potential reasons as I read what experts are saying,

  • After starting 11-0, the Steelers have played poorly, losing to two poor teams and barely beating the Colts.
  • The only good half of football they have played was the second half against the Colts.
  • Ben Roethlisberger’s arm: It has looked tenuous the past month. 
  • The Steelers playoff record over the past decade since they lost to the Packers.
  • Steelers injuries, particularly on defense. 
  • The lack of a running game — and Roethlisberger’s unwillingness to use it.
  • Mike Tomlin’s record of blowing it in the playoffs.


Here are my reasons that they will win, though I have not watched a game all year, just highlights and read stories,

  • Baker Mayfield: From the highlight reel, he looks great at times, but is inconsistent.
  • The return of T.J. Watt, who sat out last week, the league’s top sacker.
  • The loss of Stefanski to Covid, who in my opinion, should be Coach of the year — along with other coaches — but will not be the top coach.
  • With close to 21 free agents in the off-season, this may be the last best chance for them to win it all. 
  • They are a better team than the Browns right now.

The real boneheaded call: Cam Newton


The other thing I noted in this was that one analyst said that the Steelers would be a good landing sport for Cam Newton. 


Here is that followed by my analysis,


Graziano: 


Steelers. This assumes a lot of things, chief among them the fact that Pittsburgh can't bring Ben Roethlisberger back on his current contract. If Big Ben is gone, Newton could be a low-cost, high-upside option that allows the Steelers to hand out some of the big deals in store for their younger stars and also rebuild their running game with Newton as a major part of it. If Ben does find a way to return to Pittsburgh, he'll be 39. He never has been a great bet to stay healthy all year, and Newton offers better insurance than do the Steelers' backups of the past couple of years.


ESPN, NFL experts predict: Wild-card weekend upsets, QBs under pressure 

and Cam's 2021 landing spot. Jan. 5, 2021


First, I have no idea what he means about Roethlisberger’s contract. Is he asking for more money? If so, that could be a problem depending on how well he does in the playoffs. 


Second, Cam was terrible for the Patriots this year. He started off well, but he does not fit the Steeler offense. He is just not a good fit for them. 


Last, I am more optimistic about Mason Rudolph than some fans are. He looked great on three long passes of more than 40 yards last week. He did throw a poor interception, but after hardly playing all season, he showed me a flash of promise. 


In fact, he might be wise to look elsewhere. The Steelers QB coaching has been horrendous, as is their play calling. 


Nevertheless, even were the Steelers to lose, Tomlin and his OC will return next year. 


In any case, I see the Steelers winning the game against the Browns, but I cannot see the Steelers beating the Bills or the Chiefs and reaching the Super Bowl, though I would love to see another SB ring in my lifetime. 


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