Steelers botched the T.J. Watt contract situation, but he is still under contract, unlike Bell

No winners in this holdout, but Steelers are the real losers

… “did not participate in a single full-team practice at camp”

The Pittsburgh Steelers management continues to botch its contract situations. This time, it could cost them big-time as their best defensive player will likely not play in their opener on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills. 

Their best defensive player, T.J. Watt, whom CBS Sports had projected as the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, had asked for a new contact after last season. The Steelers know full well that he is their best player overall, arguably the best pass rusher in the league and a two-time Pro Bowler in his young career who had 15 sacks last year. 

Since Watt has attended every practice of the preseason, he is not technically a holdout. However, he has particular in no individual drills with the team, and he has not been part of any team strategy sessions. 

However, Watt is still under contract, unlike the situation with Le'Veon Bell, who had played out his contract. As such, he has an obligation to play. Nevertheless, the Steelers are the losers in this saga because it makes them look like they are out of touch with reality. 

And, as I note below, they are in the lower half of the teams that Vegas picks to win the 2021 Super Bowl.

Availability “in doubt”

Coach Mike Tomlin, who loves to call himself a “player’s coach,” is to address the situation at his press conference today, but knowing that he says as little as possible, do not expect anything that we do not know,

T.J. Watt is widely considered a favorite to win 2021 Defensive Player of the Year honors entering a contract season with the Steelers. That's assuming the star pass rusher suits up for Pittsburgh, which might not be the case in Week 1. 

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Watt's availability for the Steelers' season opener against the Bills on Sunday appears "in doubt" barring a last-minute agreement on a new contract. The Pro Bowler did not fully participate in a single team practice throughout training camp, and his practice status ahead of Sunday's matchup has not changed while he seeks a pay raise.

Watt, who exploded for a career-high 15 sacks in 2020, is not technically a holdout considering he's attended every practice since the summer began. But he participated exclusively in individual drills during camp, working out away from the rest of the team in an effort to accelerate talks on a new deal. 

Coach Mike Tomlin will reportedly address Watt's absence on Tuesday, but some have speculated that Sunday's kickoff could serve as an unofficial deadline for an extension, considering the Steelers have long refused to negotiate new contracts during the season.

Cody Benjamin, “T.J. Watt could miss Steelers' opener vs. Bills amid 

contract dispute, per report,” CBS Sports, September 6, 2021

Bills are widely regarded as Super Bowl contenders — Steelers are not

What makes Watt’s situation even more concerning for fans is that the team let the other outside linebacker, Bud Dupree, walk away during free agency. That means that the team’s pass rush will be decimated if Watt is not able to play. Even if he can, he will not be in top shape for the game. 

The Steelers have asked for trouble, and now they have it. Either they pay him big bucks, or they trade him away or let him sit out the season. 

The problem for the Steelers is that have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL according to the records of their opponents at the end of the 2020 regular season. The Bills are rated third most likely to reach the Super Bowl after last year’s two contenders, the Chiefs and the Bucs. 

The Las Vegas odds have the Bills at 11.70, while the Steelers are 18th at 36.83. They cannot afford a loss to the Bills — or anyone else — when your schedule is this difficult. 

Underpaid at $10 million? Yes

The truth is that not only are the Steelers unlikely to win a Super Bowl this year, I have projected that they will not win one until at least 2034, if then. The reason is simple: Art Rooney II is such a weak leader, absolutely the antithesis of his father, the late Dan, and Mike Tomlin is an overrated coach who won his only Super Bowl with players drafted under Bill Cowher. 

And, as Mike Florio writes, the Steelers are in trouble,

A couple of Pittsburgh’s unofficial rules of contract engagement are making the T.J. Watt negotiations more interesting than they otherwise would be.

First, the Steelers don’t do player contracts once the season begins. Thus, either Watt and the team find a consensus in the coming days or the plug gets pulled and Watt gets paid $10.1 million for 2021, lugging the injury risk through a 17-game regular season.

Second, the Steelers don’t fully guarantee payments beyond the first year of a veteran deal. They’ll give a player a huge signing bonus to account for that, but they don’t agree to guaranteed payments for injury, skill, and cap in the second year and beyond.

Watt, we’re told, wants (and deserves) a huge guarantee, one that stretches beyond 2021. Watt also wants be to the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.

It will be easy to get his new-money average past $27 million per year, especially if he signs a five-year extension with inflated base salaries on the back end. It won’t be easy to satisfy his effort to get full guarantees beyond the first year of the deal.

Setting aside the “why” regarding Pittsburgh’s approach to guarantees in veteran contracts (they possibly don’t like the idea of putting money in escrow, even though the rules have softened a bit), it puts them at a disadvantage. Why would Watt agree to less security than other players get, simply because that’s not the way the Steelers do it? If nearly every other team does, at some point this unofficial approach to paying players will drive a wedge that can’t be rectified.

Mike Florio, “T.J. Watt, Steelers pushing their negotiations 

to the brink,” Pro Football Talk, September 5, 2021

If not signed by Sunday …

So, what happens if they are still at a stalemate on Sunday? Not only will the Steelers lose — they are already 6.5 point underdogs — they face the reality of a losing season. They have no “Plan B,”

The “no contracts once the season starts” rule complicates the Watt situation in a different way. He didn’t hold out. He showed up, and they’ve allowed him to not practice or play in the preseason. Since they won’t (unless they break their own rule) do new contracts after the season begins, there’s no benefit to either side to letting him skip games while talks continue. The talks simply won’t continue.

Thus, the time has come for the Steelers to find a way to tactfully tell Watt that it’s time to start earning his $10.1 million, unless he’s willing to accept their best offer. If he’s not, who knows what will happen? If things go haywire, the team may be able to eventually blame their own internal rules for it.

Mike Florio,  Pro Football Talk, September 5, 2021

We shall see, but with a 38-year-old QB who has not given them much Super Bowl hope in the past decade, and with an offensive line that is patchwork, at best, and now a pass rush that has gone from superb to non-existent if Watt sits the season — they have to get this done.