Could the Texans pull off a Joe Namath-style upset of the Patriots?



... biggest underdogs in 18 years


Steeler fans -- I include myself in this -- have been saying that their big game will be the AFC title matchup against Tom Brady and the Patriots. We are also cognizant that Brady has owned the Steelers, which is somewhat depressing.

However, what no one is talking about is an upset by the 16-point underdog Houston Texans of the Pats this weekend in the AFC semifinals. No one is talking about it because underdogs like that never pull off wins like that -- especially against Bill Bellichick and Tom Brady.

What many young football fans do not realize is how New York Jets QB Broadway Joe Namath pulled off the greatest upset in NFL history in the 1968 season when his team upset the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

What they may not realize either is that the Jets were an 18-point underdog coming into the game. Nevertheless, Namath predicted the win prior to the game, and everyone just laughed at "Joe being Joe."

Joe directed that win, 16-7, one of the greatest in sports history.

Why are the Texans 16-point underdogs?

When the betting lines opened last weekend, the Pats opened as a 15.5 point favorite. They have increased that to 16 on some boards. According to CBS Sports, "The opening spread makes the Patriots the biggest favorite in nearly 20 years."

Part of this has to do with the fact that the Patriots beat the Texans in Foxboro in October, 27-0 -- using their third string quarterback. Part of this has to do with the Texans using their $72 million man, QB Brock Osweiler, who just a few weeks ago was benched in favor of backup Tom Savage. Part of this has to do with the fact that Osweiler was 24 of 41 for 196 yards in that game. Part of this has to do with the fact that Bill O'Brien is no Bill Bellichick.

Suffice it to say that Brock Osweiler is no Joe Namath.

The 2016 numbers

However, when I have questions, I look at the numbers on NFL.com. The Texans were number 1 in total defense, allowing just 203 yards per game. They were also first against the pass with 139 ypg.

Why is no one impressed with those numbers? Because they have to stop future hall-of-famer Tom Brady, for crying out loud.

Because of missing four games, Brady was just 20th in the league in passing yardage with 3,554. However, his passer rating was 112, which was second to Matt Ryan of the Falcons, who had a 117. Brady completed 2/3 of his passes, 291 of 432 for 28 touchdowns with just two interceptions, 8.23 per attempt.

And, of course, though he is 38, he has four Super Bowl rings.

Stopping Brady

As Sports Illustrated noted, "Tom Brady can be rattled, but Jadeveon Clowney is Houston's only hope." Writer Andy Benoit said that "Nobody on the Patriots can block the third-year dynamo; they'll have to neutralize Clowney."

Maybe.

Texans' defensive coordinator Romeo Crenell is a good friend of Bellichick's and coached with him in New England. Nevertheless, he will be hard-pressed to stop Brady, even without tight end Rob Gronkowski.

The Texans are missing their defensive star, J.J. Watt, which will also be problematic for them. However, if Clowney along with Whitney Mercilus and Benardrick McKinney are able to get some pressure on Brady, maybe they can slow him down.

The other area in which Houston is strong is the secondary, which will have to play well. Cornerback A.J. Bouye is one of the best in the league according to numbers by ProFootballFocus, so he will have to play well.

Difference

One thing that Osweiler has proven this year is that he is not a great QB. He was 27th in the NFL in passing yardage, six spots behind Brady who played much less and threw fewer passes. However, for the Texans to stay close, he has to play the best game of his season. He must also avoid turnovers.

If he can do that, and the defense can slow down Brady and perhaps force a few turnovers, the game may be closer than most anticipate.

I doubt that the Texans can win it, though.

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