Is the Steeler defense really the sixth best among NFL playoff teams?

… USA Today skews stats a bit 

Numbers don't lie. Whenever I read something crazy by a national reporter, I go to NFL.com to determine if the analysis is correct.

Such is the case with Nate Davis, whose USA Today bio refers to him in this way: "Nate spent his first four years out of college as a U.S. Army field artillery officer."

I hope that he did a better job with our military than he did with his assessment of NFL defenses.

I bring this up because Davis came up with a view of the NFL playoffs that I found to be questionable. He listed the top 12 defenses among the current contenders. I have listed them below.

Again, I go to numbers to determine how accurate his assessment is. Here are the teams in his order with the NFL.com stats listed afterwards -- ones that he did not include in his "analysis":

1. New York Giants, 10th overall, 23rd pass, 3rd run

2. Seattle Seahawks 5th overall, 8th pass, 7th run

3. Houston Texans, first overall, second pass, 12th run

4. New England Patriots, 8th overall, 12th pass

5. Kansas City Chiefs, 24th overall, 18th pass, 26th run

6. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12th overall, 16th pass, 13th run

7. Dallas Cowboys, 14th overall, first against the run, 26th pass

8. Atlanta Falcons, 25th overall, 28th pass

9. Oakland Raiders, 26th overall, 24th pass

10. Detroit Lions, 18th overall, 19th pass, 18th run

11. Green Bay Packers, 22nd overall, 31st pass, 8th run

12. Miami Dolphins, 29th overall, 15th pass, 30th run

Top Numbers

So, overall by the numbers, clearly the best defensive team is the Seattle Seahawks, which is why I have picked them to win it all -- though I have reservations because of injuries.

However, Davis has the Giants first. Note the numbers: The Giants are 23rd against the pass, which is why they have struggled at times this year despite having a weak schedule. They do have two quality wins against Dallas, but otherwise?

Another puzzling pick is putting Kansas City's defense ahead of the Steelers. I am going to question how good that Steeler defense is based on Davis' analysis, but Kansas City is before it.

Yes, the Chiefs, which have the 24th overall defense, are ahead of the Steelers who have the 12th. Go figure.

Steelers road to the AFC title game

The truth is that the Steelers have a great route to the AFC championship. They have the Dolphins, albeit a team that defeated them earlier in the season. Miami has the 29th ranked defense out of 32, 30th against the run. That is a recipe for Steeler offensive success, and the defense is bolstered by the fact that Miami starting QB Ryan Tannehill will sit out the game.

Davis has the Dolphins' 12th, so he is accurate there.

Second, the Steelers have the Chiefs, on the road, but this is a team that they obliterated earlier in the season, one that has the 24th ranked defense. They also have Alex Smith, never exactly a great passing QB.

So, I feel confident in the first two games, but the Steelers have been known to blow things.

After that, they will probably face the Patriots, and that narrative is a very different one from the first two stories.

Houston has the defensive numbers, but …

The Houston Texans have some good defensive numbers

On paper, Houston, whom Davis has ranked third, looks good. They have the first overall defense and the second against the pass.

However, what Davis does not use in his analysis is the quality of the competition. Do you believe for a minute that the Texans are going to ride into Foxboro next week and shut down Tom Brady?

I don't think so regardless of how much Houston Coach Bill O'Brien knows about Brady and the Patriots' offense.

Skewed Steeler numbers

Davis starts his analysis of the Steelers with a correct assessment of the current defense. "They won't remind anyone of the Steel Curtain or even the Troy Polamalu-led units that reached three Super Bowls from 2005 to 2010."

Bingo.

Since 2010, the defenses have not resembled the Steel Curtain or subsequent Ds. He veers off course when he says this: "… this Steelers defense is the best since 2012."

If he had used the adverb arguably, then I could say that he has some wiggle room. Again, I go back to the numbers. Here is the finish of the Steeler defenses of the past four seasons with the won-loss records:

2015 ... 10-6 ... 11th

2014 ... 11-5 ... 18th

2013 ... 8-8 ... 14th

2012 ... 8-8 .... 6th

So, the Steeler defense last year had better numbers than this year by a smidgen and the 2013 defense less by a smidgen. Yet, this year's is better? By what standard?

Note that he said since 2012 since the Steelers were sixth that year despite being just 8-8. They started 0-4 and then went 8-4 the rest of the way because some of that defense was still doing a decent job.

So, how does he arrive at the fact that the Steeler defense is best? Not by numbers. He mentions that this occurred with "DL Stephon Tuitt and LB Ryan Shazier emerging as reliable performers."

Really? He does not mention that for about the eighth season LB Lawrence Timmons led the team with tackles with 117, with no one else over 100. He could have mentioned that "reliable" Shazier again missed four games this season. And in the Dallas Cowboys loss, he was one of two defenders who were obliterated by the Dallas offensive line on the play in which Ezekiel Elliott burst through for a TD in the final minute to win the game.

He was also the 4.3 sprinter whom Elliott outraced to the end zone on a key flare pass that turned around the Dallas offense in the first half.

James Harrison is amazing, but a "renaissance season"?

I am one of few people who believe that James Harrison may be a member of the NFL Hall of Fame down the road. It will probably come down to the veterans committee long after I pass away. However, look at the video of the interception that won the Super Bowl against the Cards -- yes, he not Santonio Holmes, was the MVP in the game -- and look at the numbers from when he was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Synonyms for "renaissance" include rebirth or revival. Harrison did not have a rebirth, and for a 38-year-old linebacker, he had a very good season. He became the Steeler leader in career sacks and now has 187, which was exciting. He started seven of 15 games.

But a revival of his career in his prime? He had 39 tackles instead of 76, 67, 60, 70 in his glory days.

James also had five sacks instead of 16 in his prime. That is because he played hardly half of the snaps. So, great season for an old-timer, but a renaissance?

Like most of Davis' analysis, it lacks the numbers to support his position.

Conclusion

The Steeler D has the opportunity in the next two weeks to make an argument that they are indeed one of the top six defenses in the playoffs. That final argument may have to come against Tom Brady, but it may happen.