Did Deflategate actually start in 2007?

... data uses fumble and weather rates to find unbelievable change for Patriots 

The Deflategate scandal erupted in 2014, leading to the eventual suspension of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady for four games this season.

What happened was that the Patriots deflated footballs so that they would have a better chance of completing passes, particularly in the cold weather.

While the Patriots and Coach Bill Bellichick denied any nefarious involvement, they are the Patriots. Everyone knows that he pushes the envelope to the extreme on every possible occasion.

They fought the NFL through the courts until they lost one step below the U.S. Supreme Court, when they finally quit. Brady was forced to take his four-game suspension as a result.

Study about fumbles

However, an engineer has demonstrated how advanced analytics and metrics can be used in the analysis of football. He noted that an unusual thing occurred in the NFL with the Patriots starting in 2007. He analyzed two aspects of the New England stats. They included weather data and fumble data.

Warren Sharp evaluated the data for the Pats in the first six years of Bellichick's coaching career when he had the most success, 2000-06. He noted that the Patriots fumbled as much as the rest of the league during that time.

Then from 2007 until 2014, that changed. Sharp wrote in 2014, "Initially, looking at weather data, I noticed the Patriots performed extremely well in the rain, much more so than they were projected. I followed that up by looking at the fumble data, which showed regardless of weather or site, the Patriots prevention of fumbles was nearly impossible. Ironically, both studies saw the same exact starting point: 2007 was the first season where things really changed for the Patriots. Something started in 2007 which is still on-going today."

In short, the Patriots ran 187 plays until having a fumble, which is about 82 more than the NFL average of 105. [http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible]

From 2007 until 2014 -- the year of Deflategate -- the Patriots low number of fumbles was unbelievable, so much so that Mr. Sharp questioned it.

Why 2007?  

Why is 2007 so important? In 2006, quarterback Tom Brady -- along with then Colt QB Peyton Manning -- lobbied the NFL to allow the visiting teams to supply their own footballs. Up to that point, the home team supplied all the footballs, with the home quarterback making the choice of the balls.

When Sharp saw the quotation from Brady about the change, which the NFL approved effective with the 2007 season, he was puzzled: “The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different," Brady said. "Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in.”

"Blown up a little bit more"? "Some like them a little more thin"? Sounds like Deflategate eight years prior to it being discovered, but the Pats' goal was the elimination of fumbles.

In order to understand this better, and because I cannot do justice to Mr. Sharp's research, which includes amazing charts and graphs to support his research, I have the link to his story below. Take a few moments to look at what he compiled.

In essence, the Patriots hardly fumbled after they were able to control the balls on the road and at home. By deflating a football, the chances of fumbling are reduced. The graphs with this info are amazing.

In short, the Patriots went from fumbling at a normal rate in the first six years of Bellichick's tenure to hardly ever doing so for seven years. "The statistical 'jump' the Patriots make in the 2006 offseason, from one fumble every 39 plays to one fumble every 76 plays is nothing short of remarkable," Sharp wrote. " Their trendline over this period is not even close to that of the rest of the NFL."

So, the Patriots cut their fumbles in half in one season after being allowed to control the air in the footballs in all of their games?

What is interesting now is that since Deflategate required that officials take closer inspection of the balls prior to the game, the Patriots' fumble numbers are way up. For instance, this year, New England is tied for second place for the most fumbles in the league. The 49ers led the NFL with 29, and the Pats and Cardinals were tied for second with 27.

Is that because they are now running with fully-inflated footballs?

Conclusion

Here is Sharp's conclusion:

"The bottom line is, something happened in New England. It happened just before the 2007 season, and it completely changed this team. While NFL teams apparently are complaining to the league that they felt the Patriots played with deflated footballs during the 2014 season and postseason, all investigations into those allegations would be wise to reference my research herein, and begin the investigation in 2006. That was when Tom Brady was able to persuade the NFL to change its rules to allow him (and other quarterbacks) to provide their own footballs for all road games. I will reiterate, this analysis cannot say it was, undoubtedly, illegal football deflation which caused the data abnormalities. But it does conclude that something absolutely changed, and it was not the result of simple random fluctuation."

Sharp also refutes arguments that maybe Bellichick and his staff were using a different teaching technique to prevent fumbles by examining data that indicated that running backs who left the Patriots fumbled at a rate higher than the NFL average.

This is worth a read.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007