Why are the Steelers 1-point underdogs against the Chiefs? Numbers do not make sense



... maybe they know something we do not 

Checking the odds for the Steelers-Chiefs divisional game today, I noted that the Steelers are still 1-point underdogs. This was puzzling to me.

Disclaimer: I know nothing about setting odds in games and have never bet on professional or college football in my life.

Nevertheless, I do know something about football, and I question why the Steelers are underdogs to a team that they beat 43-14 in October, one that is ranked 24th overall in defense. That really strains credulity.

First advantage to Chiefs

Playing at home is a great advantage, probably giving the Chiefs two to three points. So, I will defer to the Chiefs in that area. However, they managed to win the AFC-West when Oakland collapsed after the injury to quarterback Derek Carr. That is why they have the home-field advantage.

That gave them the number two seed in the AFC, thus the spot in Arrowhead.

So, advantage to Chiefs there.

Chiefs woeful playoff record

While they have a home field advantage, the Chiefs have not won a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in 23 years. The Chiefs last won a playoff game at Arrowhead on Jan. 8, 1994, defeating the Steelers. They have lost four straight lost playoff games during those years, while the Steelers have been to three Super Bowls in the past ten years, winning two of them.

While Arrowhead is called the loudest stadium in the NFL, the Chiefs have won just two playoff games there in their history.

In addition, the Steelers have six Super Bowl victories, the Chiefs just one.

Steelers proviso

However, the Steelers have lost three of their last four games at Arrowhead. Slight advantage there, but does it overwhelm the Chiefs' woeful playoff record?

No.

Overall

Other than home field, I see no advantage. For instance, the Chiefs' defense gives up an average of 368 yards per game. With the Steeler offense having the potential to put up big numbers, that should be a major Pittsburgh advantage.

The KC defense is ranked 24th in the league, while the much-maligned Steeler D is 12th.

Offense

Overall, the Steelers are ranked seventh in total offense, while KC is 20th.

The Steelers passing offense is ranked fifth in the league with 4,202 yards, an average of 262 yards per game. The Chiefs are 19th with 3,740 yards, averaging 233.8 ypg.

The teams are close in rushing yardage, with the Steelers 14th and Chiefs 15th. Only 12 yards separates them, so they are close there.

Overall, Steelers have a major advantage on offense. Just look at the individual stats below.

Alex Smith vs. Ben Roethlisberger

At best, Alex Smith has been a middling QB. He has never led anyone to great heights despite being the first pick overall in the 2005 draft.

Smith had one good season in 2011 when the 49ers had the first winning season in his tenure, winning the NFC West and earning a spot in the NFC title game. However, the 49er passing attack was ranked 29th of 32 that year, despite their 13-3 regular-season record.

Alex Smith has thrown for 27,846 yards in his 12-year career with the 49ers and Chiefs. He has a career QB rating of 85.3.

In 2016, Smith has thrown for 3,502 yards in 15 games, for just 15 touchdowns with eight interceptions. His QB rating is 91.3. Those are definitely not hall of fame numbers.

Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for almost 47,000 yards and has made his way to three Super Bowls with two rings, though he played poorly [21 QB rating against Seahawks] in one of them.

Does not matter. Smith pales in comparison to Roethlisberger.

This year, Roethlisberger has thrown for 3,819 yards and 29 touchdowns in 14 games. He has 13 interceptions. That is an average of almost 273 yards per game. He has a QB rating of 95.4. The only rap on #7 is his consistency, which is why his rating is so much lower than Tom Brady [112].

There is no doubt that the Steelers have a major advantage in that area.

Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell vs. Chiefs

In short, do the Chiefs have any weapons like wideout Antonio Brown and running back/receiver Le'Veon Bell?

Brown has caught 106 passes for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns this year, 12.1 yards per catch. In his seven-year career, he has caught 632 passes for 8,377 and 50 TDs.

The Chiefs have no one with similar numbers.

Bell can run and catch. He has carried the ball 261 times for 1,268 yards (4.9/carry) and seven TDs in 12 games.

He also has 75 receptions for 618 yards and two touchdowns. That is an average of 8.2 yards per catch.

Bell has a total of 1,886 yards from scrimmage in 12 games.

Again, Chiefs have no one with similar potential.

Chiefs' futility in the postseason

Much has been made over the fact that the Chiefs have not won a postseason game since the days of Joe Montana. Yes, Joe Montana.

Remember him? He finished his NFL Hall of Fame career with mop-up duty in Kansas City.

Odds

Since I know little about the odds themselves, I am reprinting in full an analysis of the game by SB Nation. The link is below.

SB Nation

"The Kansas City Chiefs are just 1-9 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games played in the postseason. The Chiefs hope to find some postseason success this Sunday at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

"Kansas City is a 1-point home favorite at Arrowhead Stadium at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The AFC No. 2-seeded Chiefs are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home per the OddsShark NFL Database.

"After falling to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS this season on the heels of a 43-14 road loss to the Steelers, the Chiefs used their bye week to regroup and emerge as one of the top teams in the NFL.

"Kansas City went 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS over its last 12 games, including a 5-1 SU and ATS run to end the season that propelled the Chiefs into the No. 2 spot over the Oakland Raiders as the AFC West champions. The Chiefs averaged 27.8 points per game over that six-game stretch.

"Teams coached by Andy Reid are 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS coming off a bye week in the regular season and 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS coming off a first-round bye in the postseason.

Betting Line / Total: Kansas City -1.5 / 44 Points

Trend: The Chiefs are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.

Trend: The Steelers are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

"The Miami Dolphins had no answer for Pittsburgh last Sunday, as the Steelers rolled to a 30-12 victory as 11.5-point favorites at home. The Steelers improved to 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight games with the win, scoring at least 24 points for the ninth straight game in the process.

"Antonio Brown caught five passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns, and Le'Veon Bell rushed for 167 yards and two scores, highlighting just how dangerous this offense can be. Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four games against the Chiefs.

"Sunday's total is set at 44 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these two teams.

"As indicated by the spread, this may be the most evenly-matched and toughest game to call on the board this week. Pittsburgh's offense is a matchup nightmare for anyone, but the Chiefs have had an extra week to prepare for it and will have a fired up home crowd behind them in this one."

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Remembering the toughest loss I ever experienced in approximately a quarter-century of coaching football. George Pasierb was a great coaching adversary.

Image
R.I.P. George Pasierb, 1946-2020 Shade-Central City High School football coach Photo: Tribune-Democrat No high school football fan could ask for anything better than this. On a beautiful sunny, warm afternoon on Saturday, October 30, 1982, in Nanty Glory, Pa., the battle featured a clash of two undefeated titans of the Appalachian Conference.  One was the preseason unanimous favorite to win the title, the other a veritable surprise that season, one that had built an 8-0 record entering that game.  This battle lived up to the pre-game hype, ending in a one-point decision that was not certain until the final play of the game.  I thought of this because the coach of the powerful Shade-Central City High School Panthers, George Pasierb, passed away earlier this week. He coached the Panthers for 20 years, but his best team was arguably that 1982 team that battled the Blacklick Valley Vikings on that Saturday afternoon before more than 3,000 ebullient fans.  And, the one-po...
Read more

Why did Tennessee-Chattanooga hire trainer Tim Bream despite his role in the alcohol-induced death of Tim Piazza at a Penn State frat?

Image
… was a live-in advisor at the fraternity On paper, Tim Bream has an impressive resume. Actually, very impressive — up to a point. That seems to be when Bream’s life appears to careen out of control. Bream, who resigned as Penn State trainer in Feb.,  was a graduate of Penn State with a bachelor’s degree in physical education, specializing in athletic training. He then attended West Virginia as a grad assistant trainer, where he received a master’s degree in Physical Education with an emphasis on Sports Science. All of this information is from his bio on the Penn State athletic site. He then worked his way up the ladder impressively, working at Syracuse, Vanderbilt, and finally at the University of Richmond, where he was the Director of Sports Medicine and Head Athletic Trainer. Then he received his big break, being name as Assistant Athletic Trainer for the Chicago Bears in 1993, and four years later, Head Athletic Trainer. He was with the Bears for 19 years when inexplicably,...
Read more

Why did Mike Tomlin start hiring black coaches after 15 years?

Image
Brian Flores … hiring Flores probably rankled Goodell To place this into context, understand that the only reason that the Steelers hired Mike Tomlin 15 years ago is because he was black.  Why? He had never even been a coordinator anywhere, never in the NFL. The only reason that he was interviewed was because of the “Rooney Rule.” That rule is one named after the late Dan Rooney who led the effort to force every NFL team to interview at least one black coach when it had head coaching openings.  The Steelers had focused their coaching search after Bill Cowher left on Ron Rivera, then a defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. Their interview with Tomlin was a peremptory one, something to satisfy the smell test.  After all, why interview a guy who was just a defensive coach? Coordinators are the people who are hired for the big gig.  Tomlin, though, is a great talker, and he wooed Dan Rooney so much that he was hired for the position.  Which begs the q...
Read more